Is China Preparing A Major Offensive Op Against India In The Aftermath Of South China Sea Dispute Court Verdict on July 12?

Shailesh Kumar,

New Delhi, 10 July 2016

Amid possibility of China defying verdict on South China Sea dispute by Permanent Court of Arbitration, China seems to have been preparing a major border offensive against India. China is mobilizing troops on Indian border. There is a consistent international pressure on China to accept the tribunal ruling by following in the footsteps of India which accepted the same courts’ 2014 Bay of Bengal rulings in which court awarded 19,467km of the 25,602km EEZ to Bangladesh after both the countries failed to resolve the issue despite bilateral negotiations protracted from 1974 to 2009. 

Deploying rapid reinforcement to Tibet could be part of China’s arms twisting strategy to hold India back from adversely affecting China’s crisis management. 

China is already conducting massive military exercise in disputed South China sea to snub court and to signal warning involved countries amid clear indications that China is not ready to accept court’s verdict while it threatens to leave the UN Body - UNCLAWS.

Military sources have informed your channel NationalDefence that the People’s Liberation Army high command is shifting its 15th Airborne Corp for rapid reinforcement from Wuhan perhaps to deal with India in an offensive arm twisting tactics. 

China’s plea behind the move is that the Tibet is one of China's largest regions but with only three line brigades protecting it (52nd, 53rd and 54th mountain Brigades), clearly it's ORBAT is not geared for large scale military operations, especially in defense against India’s new mountain strike corps. 

The rapid reinforcement will buy time until REGFORCE reinforcements arrive. In June last week, 15^th Airborne Corps conducted a 5000 meter supply and a SpOps insertion drop. A mechanized regiment of 15th Airborne Corps, conducted a battalion size rapid deployment into the Tibetan Plateau adjoin Indian border.

China strongly fears that Court’s verdict might encourage other countries in the region including Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia to file similar suits in the tribunal. Besides America may conduct a joint military drill with these countries post verdict as US did a freedom of navigation operation in October 2015 post court ruling on jurisdiction in China Vs Philippines case. 

Since, India and US strategically have come closer in recent times, China is most likely to resort to India’s arm twisting in a cross border military offensive as border dispute between both countries is a sensitive issue particularly for India. China’s pre verdict arm twisting swoop is clearly visible in its live fire drills in South China Sea.